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The key unknown, because of the complexities of climate feedbacks, is how much warmer.

Wonk Room » Jim Manzi, Ross Douthat’s ‘Kick-Ass’ Global Warming Guru Has His Head In The Sand 2009

Recent studies of the physics of how deep clouds moisturize the atmosphere strongly suggest that this largest of the positive feedbacks is not only negative, but very large.

Think Progress » An Inconvenient Truth and An Intolerable Summer 2006

This suggests that any long-term feedbacks are net neutral, because otherwise the figures derived from longer term changes in radiation e.g. seasonal would be affected by longer term feedbacks and those measured over the course of hours would not, giving different figures.

USCCSP: Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere « Climate Audit 2006

Could there be no non-neutral long term feedbacks?

USCCSP: Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere « Climate Audit 2006

Long-term feedbacks could conceivably change its magnitude, but it already incorporates many of the shorter term feedbacks, so I think a massive difference between that calculated value and reality is unlikely.

Making Apple Pie Instead of Cherry Pie « Climate Audit 2006

This means that both the short-term feedbacks on insolation and the long-term feedbacks on ocean mixing are going to be only approximations.

Answers to the House Committee on Cross-Validation Statistics « Climate Audit 2005

However, because of the short-term feedbacks inherent to capitalism and its inability to appreciate non-monetary costs to the environment, alternative energy sources will be just that-alternatives, not replacements.

Anarchist news dot org - News for anarchists and their friends 2010

In para. 63 he nails it all together by saying it is clear we can't be accurate regarding short term feedbacks (or even long-term climate sensitivity).

RealClimate deconvoluter 2010

It could happen faster if the sensitivity is higher (cooling agents are not as cooling as thought perhaps) and longer term feedbacks may double the charney limit but as yet no IPCC update but one from James Hansen which although coming from him might be see as true only means it needs to go through the IPCC process to be true to world opinion and our reaction to it.

RealClimate 2009

It could happen faster if the sensitivity is higher (cooling agents are not as cooling as thought perhaps) and longer term feedbacks may double the charney limit but as yet no IPCC update but one from James Hansen which although coming from him might be see as true only means it needs to go through the IPCC process to be true to world opinion and our reaction to it.

RealClimate 2009