NCEP

Also not surprisingly, the review goes on to find that any significant change in the status quo at EMC will require a substantial increase in NOAA funding of NCEP.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

The NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast System (SREF), claimed to be the first real-time operational regional ensemble prediction system in the world.

Liveblogging the AGU – part 2 | Serendipity 2009

This is most unfortunate, for the NCEP review concludes, "It is both urgent and absolutely essential to begin today in order to advance U.S. capability to an acceptable level in the decade to come."

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

As detailed in the NCEP review, the reasons for this are many and complex.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

Not surprisingly, the NCEP review argues for EMC computer capabilities at least comparable to those of other major international centers and adequate human resources to achieve its mandated operational forecast mission.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

Personal note: As a former research meteorologist at EMC, I couldn't agree more with the NCEP review's finding that "the level of EMC accomplishment is remarkable and laudable considering the parsimony of the resources made available" and that a staff of "significantly stressed" world-class scientists is continually asked/required to do more with less.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

The review also recommends that NCEP embrace a flexible, unified modeling approach that can be specialized for specific applications, and engaging (more so than now) partners from other agencies, academia and the private sector.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

While NCEP has made steady progress in global model prediction, so too have other countries.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

The end result is that ECMWF has twice the staff working on its global model than does NCEP, consisting of a cadre of more-or-less permanent employees complemented by a predictable rotation of scientists from ECMWF member countries.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010

The National Weather Service's National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is the primary agency responsible for the development and operational implementation of NWP in the United States.

U.S. lags other nations in global weather prediction Steve Tracton 2010