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Examples
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ViroPharma lost 6.47, or 53%, to 5.74, after the Exton, Pa., biopharmaceutical company said it didn't achieve its primary goal of a lesser incidence of cytomegalovirus disease, a category that includes the viruses that cause chicken pox, with its Phase III study of maribavir in bone-marrow transplant patients.
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"We note that the dropout rate due to adverse events does appear to be elevated in the highest dose of maribavir, and introduces some uncertainty on how the company will select a dose for Phase III trials," he said.
ViroPharma's Phase II Data 'Introduces Some Uncertainty' 2006
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Better-than-expected outcomes would include a reduction in the CMV infection rate to significantly below 20% in the maribavir arms or any trend towards reductions in CMV disease or mortality.
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"We remain encouraged that maribavir and/or the company's stellar business development track record will be successful long term, and progress with either effort could sway our investment thesis, given what we see as a $9 to $10 absolute floor on the valuation from Vancocin and current cash alone."
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"Positive data for maribavir could create near-term upside for the stock," the Piper Jaffray analyst said.
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"As a reminder, our $13 price target assumes a worst case scenario for Vancocin and $3-$4 per share in value for maribavir."
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Piper Jaffray reiterated a "market perform" on ViroPharma after the company recently announced positive clinical data for its antiviral drug maribavir.
ViroPharma's Phase II Data 'Introduces Some Uncertainty' 2006
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Piper Jaffray said ViroPharma is likely to release positive mid-stage data for its lead pipeline drug maribavir.
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"We could not have hoped for better results, as these data show that treatment with maribavir dramatically reduces the incidence of CMV cytomegalovirus reactivation in these very sick patients," ViroPharma said in a statement.
ViroPharma's Phase II Data 'Introduces Some Uncertainty' 2006
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"We believe that maribavir could be launched by 2009, and could take significant market share from current therapies as well as grow the overall anti-CMV market," said Wei.
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