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Examples
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The figure below shows how well the poll-based out-of-sample predictions track with actual outcomes in forty-five gubernatorial elections from 2006 (34) and 2008 (11).
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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In keeping with the earlier posts, I focus here on how well "out-of-sample" forecasts account for actual outcomes.
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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The correlation between the out-of-sample forecasts and the actual outcomes in 2006 and 2008 is .99, and the model predicted the wrong winner in just two of the cases.
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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The correlation between the out-of-sample forecasts and the actual outcomes in 2006 and 2008 is .99 and the model predicted the wrong winner in just two of the cases.
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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The figure below shows how well the poll-based out-of-sample predictions track with actual outcomes in forty-five gubernatorial elections from 2006 (34) and 2008 (11).
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
-
In keeping with the earlier posts, I focus here on how well "out-of-sample" forecasts account for actual outcomes.
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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The figure below shows how well the poll-based, out-of-sample predictions track with actual outcomes in forty-five gubernatorial elections from 2006 (34) and 2008 (11).
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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Economist 2 [interrupting]: "Good thing you didn't use Bayesian Vector Autoregression models in out-of-sample prediction!"
Freakonomics: The T.V. Series, Bryan Caplan | EconLog | Library of Economics and Liberty 2009
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In keeping with the earlier posts, I focus here on how well "out-of-sample" forecasts account for actual outcomes.
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
-
The correlation between the out-of-sample forecasts and the actual outcomes in 2006 and 2008 is .99 and the model predicted the wrong winner in just two of the cases.
Thomas M. Holbrook: Polls and Gubernatorial Elections Thomas M. Holbrook 2010
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