p(doom)

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I think we should set aside p(doom) and start talking about p(dystopia) which is far more aligned to the reality of current risks.

Why my p(doom) has risen, dramatically Marcus on AI 2025
My p(doom) — a rough, vibes-based measure of how probable I feel A.I. catastrophe is — hovers somewhere between 5 and 10 percent, making me a tame moderate by comparison.

A.I.’s Prophet of Doom Wants to Shut It All Down 2025
A 2024 paper that surveyed almost 3000 published AI researchers revealed that more than half thought the chance of AI causing human extinction or permanent and severe disempowerment – the so-called p(doom) or probability of doom – was at least 10 per cent.

How worried should you be about an AI apocalypse? Matthew Sparkes 2026