probabilities

Using these data, Abbe made what he called probabilities, or forecasts, and provided a daily weather chart.

Storm Warning Nancy Mathis 2007

In recent posts I've explained the new statistical procedure that produces our trend lines and how we now generate "win probabilities" for the leading candidate in each race.

Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model The Huffington Post News Team 2010

So to try to compensate for those problems, we added a very important feature to the statistical model that produces our win probabilities: It now incorporates the House race ratings produced by the Cook Political Report.

Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model The Huffington Post News Team 2010

So is it possible that our final polling "trend estimates" and win probabilities are providing a misleading picture of the outcome?

Could The Polls In Election 2010 Be Wrong? The Huffington Post News Team 2010

As a result, relatively small leads on House District estimates -- sometimes as little as 4 to 6 percentage points -- would generate win probabilities at or near 100%, often in races that Cook still puts in the their toss-up category.

Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model The Huffington Post News Team 2010

So to try to compensate for those problems, we added a very important feature to the statistical model that produces our win probabilities: It now incorporates the House race ratings produced by the Cook Political Report.

Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model The Huffington Post News Team 2010

In the end it comes down to probabilities, is a 20% chance of a fatal ailment reason enough to run $5000 in tests?

The Volokh Conspiracy » An Act for the Relief of Sick and Disabled Seamen 2010

As a result, relatively small leads on House District estimates -- sometimes as little as 4 to 6 percentage points -- would generate win probabilities at or near 100%, often in races that Cook still puts in the their toss-up category.

Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model The Huffington Post News Team 2010

As much as I enjoy Asimov, the idea of psychohistory ever producing a workable model for predicting future probabilities is too ludicrous even for scifi.

Matthew Yglesias » What Might Have Been 2009

In recent posts I've explained the new statistical procedure that produces our trend lines and how we now generate "win probabilities" for the leading candidate in each race.

Explaining The Pollster-Dashboard U.S. House Model The Huffington Post News Team 2010